BANKROLL
BANKROLL: $2,008
We may (I stress, may) be back on the turf for most of Sunday’s card, and that’s great to see. As others have noted, the past two years have been some of the worst summers on record for races rained off the turf. Nobody benefits from that; not bettors, not horsepeople, and certainly not NYRA, which offers a less appealing wagering product on those days.
In his excitement over the change in weather, however, Matthew DeSantis of NYRA Bets committed a cardinal sin. He posted a screenshot of the 10-day weather forecast that showed nothing but gorgeous conditions. In other words, when Saratoga monsoons inevitably pop up, you all know EXACTLY who to blame (in case my sarcasm isn’t clear, Matthew’s a friend and I can’t resist the chance to bust his chops!).
SATURDAY’S RESULTS: Aviator Gui didn’t run badly in his debut, but he flattened out late to run third. As a result, I dropped $40.
SUNDAY’S PLAY: I thought today was fairly chalky, but the sixth race may offer some value with #6 QUICKICK, who may be a bit of a price and has been working very, very well. I’ll have a $20 win ticket on that one, as well as $5 exactas using her above and below #4 TRADING STRATEGY and #8 TRANGO TOWER. Furthermore, I’ll have $5 doubles singling her to start and finishing with #3 NOTTOWAY and #4 RIDER’S SPECIAL.
TOTAL WAGERED: $50.
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SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS
Best Bet: Ottoman Fleet, Race 10
Longshot: Nottoway, Race 7
R1
She’s Always Rosie
She’s Cool
Oh My Mia
#4 SHE’S ALWAYS ROSIE (4/5): Offers next to no value in the Sunday opener, but sure seems the most likely winner. She’s taken a major step forward since being claimed by Linda Rice in April, and a repeat of her last-out effort almost certainly wins this; #2 SHE’S COOL (9/2): Is the other half of a powerful Rice 1-2 punch and may be the lone closer in this spot. That hasn’t been a great running style in local sprints, but her third-place finish last time out at Churchill was a solid effort; #1 OH MY MIA (4-1): Broke through on the drop in class last time out, which was also her first start with jockey Jose Ortiz in the irons. He sees fit to ride back for Tom Amoss, who’s very good at keeping horses on the right track.
R2
Proprietary Trade
Apollo Code
Squints
#2 PROPRIETARY TRADE (6/5): Chased much, much better horses last time out in the Jersey Shore at Monmouth, which was won by Book Em Danno (the likely favorite in the Grade 1 H. Allen Jerkens). He gets Lasix back on the drop in class, and that’s enabled him to run some very big races in the past; #1 APOLLO CODE (4-1): Won two in a row against older claimers earlier this year and comes back to the claiming ranks for this event against fellow 3-year-olds. He’s shown plenty of early zip in the past and could be in position to utilize that with the rail draw; #4 SQUINTS (8-1): Goes first off the claim for Tom Morley in here and exits a narrow win against slightly weaker competition. He had an eventful trip that day, and he showed enough talent to win a restricted stakes race late last year at Gulfstream.
R3
Icy Reply
Rachel’s Rock
Willow Bend
#2 ICY REPLY (5-1): Lost all chance at the start last time out, when his jockey lost the irons. That rider sees fit to get back abaord here on a drop in class, and a repeat of her winning effort two back would give her a big shot in what looks like a wide-open event; #3 RACHEL’S ROCK (2-1): Takes a significant class drop and has prior races that would crush this group. However, she hasn’t run since February, and that effort is her lone start since December. She could win, but I think her likely price is a bit of an underlay; #5 WILLOW BEND (7/2): Was claimed two back and returns to what’s probably the right level after a failed try against much better last time out. This barn has won just once at this stand as of this writing, but has hit the board with seven of 13 runners.
R4
Save Us Melania
Yingle Bells
Thedreamcontinues
#9 SAVE US MELANIA (3-1): Ran fairly well in her dirt debut in May and sports several flashy local drills for a high-percentage outfit. This is far from the strongest field you’ll see at this level, and the cushy outside draw is another big plus; #3 YINGLE BELLS (6-1): Showed some speed in her debut for a barn whose first-time starters often need a race to get going. She drops in class and adds Lasix here, and I’m expecting a considerable step forward at second asking; #8 THEDREAMCONTINUES (10-1): Debuted in an off-the-turf race out of the Wilson chute, which isn’t an easy route for a first-time starter. Irad Ortiz, Jr., hops aboard, and this is another second-time starter that has room to improve.
R5
Big Ego (MTO)
Cattani
Mazzei
#8 CATTANI (2-1): Is protected in his first start since October, and while the layoff is a concern, this is far from a tough spot, and anything close to his lone turf race to date makes him the one to beat. The steady stream of five-furlong drills downstate hint that he’s ready, and Flavien Prat’s presence is a plus; #10 MAZZEI (5-1): Stretches out from turf sprints and may very well make the early lead by default. The outside post is tricky, but he could also get comfortable on the front end against many horses that haven’t show much interest in passing others; #2 JUDGE RULES (9/2): Was pretty wide last time out and may have been compromised by that unlucky trip. His two-back effort at this level was a solid second, and while he’s been at this level for quite a while, I can’t totally ignore him.
R6
Quickick
Trango Tower
Trading Strategy
#6 QUICKICK (6-1): Sold for $550,000 as a yearling and has several very strong works on her tab ahead of her unveiling. Her dam was a classy, Grade 3-winning sprinter, and she may be an even better broodmare, with nine winners to her credit (including three who have won stakes races); #8 TRANGO TOWER (9/2): Is one of two Chad Brown trainees in here that are bred to be runners. This daughter of Curlin is out of multiple graded stakes winner Lewis Bay, and while seven furlongs is a tough first-out distance, her pedigree says this absolutely won’t be too far; #4 TRADING STRATEGY (5/2): Hammered for $500,000 last year at Keeneland and has been working steadily for Brown. Flavien Prat lands here, which is notable, and her bottom-side pedigree includes third dam Phone Chatter, a runner that earned Champion 2-Year-Old Filly honors after a season with multiple Grade 1 wins.
R7
Rider’s Special
Nottoway
Beach Boy Al
#4 RIDER’S SPECIAL (7/5): Gets wheeled back very quickly after a dud as an 8/5 favorite against higher-level competition. Linda Rice does this more than other trainers and has had some success with that move. Add in that this is a significant class drop, and I think this is a formidable favorite; #3 NOTTOWAY (12-1): Comes in from Finger Lakes, which is always a notable trip in these lower-level claiming races, and if you draw a line through a three-back dud where the running line says he was “in distress,” he doesn’t have a bad race on his sheet. This 15-time winner may not get much respect at the windows, but his best race could win this if the chalk misfires; #6 BEACH BOY AL (7/2): Never threatened a much-the-best winner last time out in what hits me as a much tougher spot than this event. He’s a closer in a race with some speed signed on, and the likely race shape could give him a chance to pick up the pieces.
R8
Baraye (MTO)
Mansa Musa
Yellow Card
#7 MANSA MUSA (5/2): Threw everything but the kitchen sink at Star of Mystery last time out in the Grade 3 Quick Call, and there’s no shame in running second to a very talented horse. He’s got two very strong races at this route, one some horses truly thrive at, and he seems like the one to beat in the Mahoney; #3 YELLOW CARD (6-1): Was very impressive last time out in his turf debut, and while he takes a step up in class here, I think he’s found what he wants to do. Irad Ortiz, Jr., hops aboard for a trainer that means business when he ships, and this is one that seems like he’s going the right way; #1 FANDOM (7/2): May have been too far back in the Quick Call, when he was sixth of seven in the early going and was probably left with too much to do. He’s got some ground to make up on my top pick, but he did beat that rival two back in the Palisades at Keeneland.
R9
That’s Money
Anthracite
Street Swagg
#10 THAT’S MONEY (9/5): Takes a monstrous class drop after tiring in the Mike Lee last time out. He may not have liked the sloppy track that day, and having to run without Lasix might’ve hurt him, too. Here, he gets Lasix, as well as an ideal draw against restricted claiming company; #5 ANTHRACITE (8-1): Hasn’t won in a while, but was claimed by Linda Rice last time out and is certainly eligible to improve. That was his first start in three months, and Rice is one of the best in the game with new acquisitions; #2 STREET SWAGG (8-1): Ran well last time out, when he made the lead in a race out of the Wilson chute and held on for second at odds of 11-1. Flavien Prat rides back, and while he may need to work a bit harder out of the gate, it’s also possible he’s found the right rider for what he wants to do.
R10
Ottoman Fleet
Major Dude
Carl Spackler
#6 OTTOMAN FLEET (8/5): Exits back-to-back graded stakes scores and looms large for powerhouse connections in the Grade 1 Fourstardave. He’s got plenty of versatility, with enough speed to make the lead and enough of a kick to stalk and pounce, and that gives Flavien Prat an abundance of options; #3 MAJOR DUDE (8-1): Won a pair of graded stakes races a season ago and goes third off the bench for Todd Pletcher in here. His last-out win here was a very good one, and while he takes a step up in class, his 2023 form tells me he can handle it, and the morning line price hits me as an overlay; #4 CARL SPACKLER (9/5): Will take plenty of money after his win in the Grade 3 Kelso last month, but I have some reservations. His best effort puts him right there, but I don’t think he beat much in the Kelso, where he got a picture-perfect ride from Tyler Gaffalione. He may need to fire a career-best shot to get the money, and given his likely short price, I can’t be too enthusiastic.
R11
Carson’s Run
Deterministic
Legend of Time
#4 CARSON’S RUN (8-1): Is an example of one of my favorite angles, the “toss two” play. Toss the races directly before and after a long layoff, and all of a sudden, you have a horse with three impressive wins in four starts. There’s some speed signed on in the Grade 1 Saratoga Derby, and I think this one’s live; #6 DETERMINISTIC (9/2): Took to turf well last out, when he ran second in the Grade 3 Manila downstate. That day’s winner came back to win another graded stakes race, and there’s every chance this one keeps moving forward in his second start on the grass; #1 LEGEND OF TIME (5/2): Will almost certainly be a pretty heavy favorite given a few defections, but I’ve never been crazy about him. He couldn’t capitalize on an ideal trip last time out in the Grade 1 Belmont Derby, and while these connections merit respect, it’s not like his form towers over his competition.
